COVID Thoughts

 

We are failing collectively in our response to COVID 19.  Yesterday 1403 souls were lost in the States yesterday to it.  That is ~400 more COVID fatalities than Japan has recorded this year. 

To get an idea of what the day over day scale of an outbreak is like.  It is handy to look at new cases per 100k people.  That gives you a stable view of the life cycle of an outbreak.  In that regard New York is one of the better examples (since it was hit so hard it is especially useful, cause we know the virus was there) in the US  and they are currently around 3 to 4 new cases per 100k people.  *Keep that in mind when we talk about spikes.  Some of the hardest hit states are AZ (31), FL (34)*, TX (28), CA (17).  As a comparison some of our economic peers Germany (<1), Italy (<1), France (3), Spain (6)* and SK (<0.1). 

Germany is currently seeing a spike in new cases. To give that context, they were experiencing 400 to 500 new cases a day around July 1^st.  They are concerned and taking steps to control the outbreak now, with daily new cases around 750.  So they are looking at a change of .5 to ~1 new cases per 100k.  The US as a whole plateaued around 20k into June (we saw our peak new case count in late July of 74k).  California a state less than half the size of Germany, population wise, is on average seeing 6500 new cases a day.  New York, a state that is doing pretty well by US standards, is still seeing 3 times as many cases per 100k as Germany during their *spike* in new cases.  South Korea and the US reported their first cases on the same day.   SK is at ~300 deaths and the US is approaching 160k. So when people talk about spikes in other countries, look at what is actually happening on the ground there.  That is why other countries can safely open up more widely. 

Viruses move from place to place, it isn’t instantaneous and the only way they are generally stopped is by taking steps to do so.  If not, it is just a matter of time till they spread.  We could be doing better.  Much better.   Much of this was avoidable.  With a clear eyed strategy and effective communication, so much death and misery could have been avoided. 

The executive branch could have issued plans and ramped up production of critical supplies in March.  They could have done PSAs on hygiene and mask wearing.  They could have provided clearer recommendations to states and support for local governments to ease the burden by providing logistical support.  Then Senate could have acted in May, June or July to provide stability to distressed and impacted citizens and small businesses.  Collectively they could have said that it is false choice between the safety of citizens and the economy.  By emphasizing that latter, we are getting the worst of both worlds (a sicker population and crippled economy). 

This is a failure of leadership and imagination. 

It has been a while.....

Well it has been a while.  A friend recommended that I post an update, for everyone who not reading.   Been a busy few years in the interim, there have been elections, movies, moves and pending nuptials.  I will try to chronicle some of them when I can.  But I am sure it will just turn into  grousing about politics again. 

Haven't posted in a while....

This seems appropriate tonight.....

Lies, Liars, and the Lying

In the weeks to come you are going to here much, and more, about how the Obama Administration's reckless spending is the cause for the nations large national debt.

That is simply not true.  Ezra Klein, was kind enough to dig up this chart (from the folks at CBPP) to show the main drivers of the nations debt over the coming decades.  

 

This has become a mainstay of the modern Republican Party.  Deny, the consequences of policies

you have advocated if they are negative.  Just reinforcing the old adage, "Conservatism can not fail.  Only you can fail conservatism".   

Race, the Race, and Summer Storms....

Been away for a while, but with the campaign truly heating up.  These are the things that caught my attention:

First up I am glad Chris Matthews said this to RNC chairman Reince Priebus:


The naked and wanton racial animus that the Republican Party is trucking in, is saddening.   Republicans have suffered no consequences for this.

Now some of this is because talking about racial issues is horrifically difficult.  This piece by Ta-Neshisi Coates, Fear of a Black President, is one of the best pieces I have read on race in sometime.  I would highly recommend reading it if you have not.  

What the Stimulus has wrought

This is an election year and you are going to hear a lot about how the Stimulus (ARRA) has failed from Republicans.  The folks over at Mosler Economics have put together a report with some lovely charts showing pre and post Stimulus statistics for the country.  

Things are not great and I will be first to say, that the administration should have been more aggressive on that front.  A recalcitrant congress definitely was hurdle.  But I will not let them off easy, it wasn't, as if they were not warned.   That being said, this should put the lie to the "stimulus failed!" rhetoric.  I know it won't.  But it is nice to see graphical proof.  A couple of examples:

 

Thank You Mann....and Ornstein

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

It is a topic I harp on.  But it is nice to see two political mavens, such as Mann and Ornstein, say that which shall not be said.   It is not both sides!

The Republican party has marched inexorably right.  The Democratic party has not.  This is a problem.

It is not symmetric.