COVID Thoughts

 

We are failing collectively in our response to COVID 19.  Yesterday 1403 souls were lost in the States yesterday to it.  That is ~400 more COVID fatalities than Japan has recorded this year. 

To get an idea of what the day over day scale of an outbreak is like.  It is handy to look at new cases per 100k people.  That gives you a stable view of the life cycle of an outbreak.  In that regard New York is one of the better examples (since it was hit so hard it is especially useful, cause we know the virus was there) in the US  and they are currently around 3 to 4 new cases per 100k people.  *Keep that in mind when we talk about spikes.  Some of the hardest hit states are AZ (31), FL (34)*, TX (28), CA (17).  As a comparison some of our economic peers Germany (<1), Italy (<1), France (3), Spain (6)* and SK (<0.1). 

Germany is currently seeing a spike in new cases. To give that context, they were experiencing 400 to 500 new cases a day around July 1^st.  They are concerned and taking steps to control the outbreak now, with daily new cases around 750.  So they are looking at a change of .5 to ~1 new cases per 100k.  The US as a whole plateaued around 20k into June (we saw our peak new case count in late July of 74k).  California a state less than half the size of Germany, population wise, is on average seeing 6500 new cases a day.  New York, a state that is doing pretty well by US standards, is still seeing 3 times as many cases per 100k as Germany during their *spike* in new cases.  South Korea and the US reported their first cases on the same day.   SK is at ~300 deaths and the US is approaching 160k. So when people talk about spikes in other countries, look at what is actually happening on the ground there.  That is why other countries can safely open up more widely. 

Viruses move from place to place, it isn’t instantaneous and the only way they are generally stopped is by taking steps to do so.  If not, it is just a matter of time till they spread.  We could be doing better.  Much better.   Much of this was avoidable.  With a clear eyed strategy and effective communication, so much death and misery could have been avoided. 

The executive branch could have issued plans and ramped up production of critical supplies in March.  They could have done PSAs on hygiene and mask wearing.  They could have provided clearer recommendations to states and support for local governments to ease the burden by providing logistical support.  Then Senate could have acted in May, June or July to provide stability to distressed and impacted citizens and small businesses.  Collectively they could have said that it is false choice between the safety of citizens and the economy.  By emphasizing that latter, we are getting the worst of both worlds (a sicker population and crippled economy). 

This is a failure of leadership and imagination.