Tuesday, December 28, 2010

Talking about Wikileaks....

I have some conflicted feelings on the whole Wikileaks scandal. In general I am certain that the government is abusing its ability to classify its activities as "secret". But I am aware that Julian Assange is definitely an ass, and is accused of rape, so yeah not the most savory of individuals.

But this discussion on CNN, involving Glenn Greenwald, is as good a summation as you will get on the various points. Warning Greenwald drinks both of their milkshakes. Ms. Yelin and Ms. Townsend are out of their league on this subject.



-Cheers

Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Miller Time....

There have been many days that I have been an extremely vocal critic (and will still have those days in the future) of the President, but on a day like today I am impressed still. Taking concrete steps to make this a more equitable society need to be applauded when they happen.

So yeah you know the drill....

A heartfelt "cheers" to those who can no serve their country openly and with the dignity that they have for so long been denied.

-Cheers

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Monday, December 20, 2010

Rise of the oligarchs.....ctd

Continuing the previous conversation this piece here pretty much covers all the bases:

Estate Tax Exemptions

More important to many upper-middle-class Americans than the estate tax rate are exemptions that mean the vast majority of Americans won't have to pay any estate taxes at all. The first $5 million in assets passed on to descendants in a lifetime would be shielded from any taxes. Also, married couples can more easily combine their exemptions, protecting a minimum of $10 million for most families.

"That's going to allow a lot more people to transfer a lot more wealth to future generations free of estate taxes or gift taxes," says Chris Roe, senior wealth adviser at Waldron Wealth Management.

The number of people who must worry about estate taxes, already tiny, would shrink to less than 0.2 percent of the population, estimates Richard Behrendt, senior estate planner at Robert W. Baird & Co. In 2009, when the exemption was $3.5 million, 14,713 people had fortunes large enough to file taxable estate returns, according to the IRS. Just 4,296 of those people had estates of $5 million or larger. Compare that with the 2.47 million Americans who died in 2008, according to the most recent data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

If Congress does nothing, the exemption would be just $1 million and the tax rate 55 percent in 2011. From 1942 to 1976, the estate tax rate was 77 percent for estates over $10 million, and only estates under $60,000 were exempt from the tax entirely.

Favorable Rules

For those wealthy enough to still need to worry about estate taxes, the new tax legislation is written to make it much easier to manage their fortunes. For example, individuals can easily pass their remaining tax exemptions on to their spouses after death, without creating complex trusts. Also, new rules treat gifts to children during a donor's lifetime the same as those made after death, making it easier to pass on estates before assets appreciate and incur extra taxes.

Low interest rates make this the perfect time for many clients to set up trusts like Grantor Retained Annuity Trusts, known as GRATs. In a GRAT, parents loan assets like stocks or even an interest in a private business to the trust at the lowest interest rate possible under the law, which is set each month by the IRS. If the value of those assets increases over time, the GRATs' beneficiaries reap any benefit above that interest rate. Luckily for those who set up GRATs now, interest rates are at record lows—the IRS set the December rate at 1.8 percent.

I honestly blame a poor history education for the amount of argument over this issue. This Business Insider article aggregates a lot of charts showing the same things. The wealthy keep getting wealthier and the poor keep getting poorer:

The rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer. Cliché, sure, but it's also more true than at any time since the Gilded Age.

The poor are getting poorer, wages are falling behind inflation, and social mobility is at an all-time low.

If you're in that top 1%, life is grand.


This is a real problem, for a stable democracy.

-Cheers

Friday, December 17, 2010

Rise of the oligarchs.....

This is gonna be an omnibus post of sorts. There have been a lot of things going on the past couple of weeks.

A couple of articles and topics have absolutely consumed my attention recently.

This piece by Roger Simon has to be the prototype of elite reaction to the current economic situation the country finds itself in.
Don't like the way wealth is distributed? Then you can join congressional Democrats and grump about it, or you can get some wealth for yourself.
This has to be the most tone deaf thing I have read in some time. The utter lack self-consciousness and dripping condescension is awe-inspiring.

I think the folks at Huffington Post really hit the nail on the head:

There was second hypothesis: Maybe a good chunk of the political class is just so insulated from the realities in the report that they don't feel the same sense of urgency that most Americans do. Things are terrible on Main Street, but on Wall Street, Pennsylvania Avenue, and K Street, they don't look so gloomy. How else can we explain why everyone in Washington was talking about deficit reduction (at least until they decided to blow another hole in the budget), even while polls show that Americans ranked it way, way below fixing the economy?

It's not clear which is scarier -- that our leaders don't think they can lead, or that they don't want to.

Either way, the middle-class economy keeps falling, and no one is there to hear it.
Pretty much.


Also, Fox news makes you dumb.


  • Most economists estimate the stimulus caused job losses (12 points more likely)

  • Most economists have estimated the health care law will worsen the deficit (31 points)

  • The economy is getting worse (26 points)

  • Most scientists do not agree that climate change is occurring (30 points)

  • The stimulus legislation did not include any tax cuts (14 points)

  • Their own income taxes have gone up (14 points)

  • The auto bailout only occurred under Obama (13 points)

  • When TARP came up for a vote most Republicans opposed it (12 points)

  • And that it is not clear that Obama was born in the United States (31 points)
But the other news orgs didn't exactly cover themselves with glory:

Daily consumers of MSNBC and public broadcasting (NPR and PBS) were higher (34 points and 25 points respectively) in believing that it was proven that the US Chamber of Commerce was spending money raised from foreign sources to support Republican candidates. Daily watchers of network TV news broadcasts were 12 points higher in believing that TARP was signed into law by President Obama, and 11 points higher in believing that most Republicans oppose TARP.
We are so screwed.

-Cheers

Thursday, December 2, 2010

Man I miss me some Dave....

Politics has seriously got me in the dumps recently....

But this clip for the Chappelle show just makes me laugh......




Aluminum Tubes!


-Cheers

Wednesday, December 1, 2010

And now for something different....

The season finale for the Venture Brothers was a couple weekends ago, and I finally got around to watching it.

As always it did not fail to amuse....but there was one segment of the episode, that will live on in my mind for the ages along side the infamous "Gimme my money" from the Family Guy.

Behold, "What's a Rusty Venture".



-Cheers

Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Douche-bag of the Day!

It has been a while since I have done one of these, but well, I thought Rep. John Shadegg performed above and beyond the call of duty.

The people of Arizona could not hope for a more clueless representative:



I will just let you bask in his idiocy. I am no huge fan of Mike Barnacle, but from an economic standpoint he has the right of it......

-Cheers

We are just tribal creatures.....

These sorts of articles just absolutely crush any optimism I have for a rational society.

The phenomenon is referred to as motivated skepticism. Ezra Klein pulls a lot of this stuff together, to start my day off badly. The reasons for this are obvious. It has recently been a topic of some conversation, the motivations of the Republican Party.

The money quote of the piece, for me would be:
Three scary sentences from the piece: "when reference group information was available, participants gave no weight to objective policy content, and instead assumed the position of their group as their own. This effect was as strong among people who were knowledgeable about welfare as it was among people who were not. Finally, participants persisted in the belief that they had formed their attitude autonomously even in the two group information conditions where they had not."
Rational analysis, is completely secondary to identifying with your group. Let that roll over in your mind for a bit. Presented with verifiable information, party id mattered more then objective policy content.

I really don't have a good retort for this right now. Normally I like to game out strategies and such to work around these sorts of obstacles, but with the high level of polarization in the country, I am not sure what the solution is.

Mr. Klein also reminds us of a quote by one of my favorite philosophers, Bertrand Russell:
"If a man is offered a fact which goes against his instincts, he will scrutinize it closely, and unless the evidence is overwhelming, he will refuse to believe it. If, on the other hand, he is offered something which affords a reason for acting in accordance to his instincts, he will accept it even on the slightest evidence."
That leads me to one question. We all agree that the economy is bad, and on shaky ground. The President has proposed multiple "moderate" (read as warmed over and retreaded Republican plans from the past, from the health care reform bill, to the Stimulus) policies to help ameliorate some of the massive problems we have been through the past couple of years and that is characterized as socialist. So one has to wonder if presented with a choice of taking steps to fix the economy that yield politically positive benefits for President Obama or stymieing that effort, what would be the Republican answer for that?

Thus far, the answer is "No".

You should be very concerned. One party is concerned about governing during a severe economic recession and the other is concerned with returning to power.

The president and the democrats seem unwilling to accept that.

If the president is having a hard time understanding why his base is demoralized, he need look no farther then his decision on the federal pay freeze or the Bush Tax Cuts. An inability to make your opposition pay for their intransigence and an unwillingness to fight for your ostensible beliefs.....

Yeah I am not happy this morning.

-Cheers

Monday, November 29, 2010

Now for the negotiations.....

I am sorry Mr. President this is a stupid move. It is bad economics during a recession and bad policy when dealing with an intractable opposition.

Pre-conciliatory gestures will get you nothing sir. Nothing at all. The republicans want to destroy your presidency. It further depresses your base. It just doesn't make any sense. Get out there and fight for your beliefs.

Bad move.

-Cheers

Putting a pretty bow on it....

Over the last couple of weeks I have been in a number of lengthy political arguments with conservatives via Facebook. It has been illuminating.

Those who know me well, know that I am not an overtly aggressive person, but I can be combative when discussing issues I view as matters of fact (i.e what were the employment numbers from the 90's as compared to the 00's, increases and decreases in real wages, health insurance enrollment or poverty statistics). Anything that there is documented evidence or data for, I feel on much firmer ground when discussion.

Both of the major discussions I had, started from different points but converged in an interesting way. One started from a commenting stating that the Bush Administration oversaw the "greatest economy ever". The other began when I made a comment about Mrs. Sarah Palin in which I provided a quote from her about her support for the TARP program, when Bush implemented it during the last presidential election. The quote was a nonsensical collection of republican boilerplate, which showed no grasp of the relevant policy or its implications. That to me was terrifying.

From those two points the conversations spiraled down in the same way and the "arguments" of the individuals in questions had the same whiff of sententiousness and a heavy reliance on argumentum ad populum. I will not re-litigate those arguments here, but I wanted to comment on the general tenor. What I saw was a complete disregard of any data which contradicts their perspective, an unwillingness to provide any support for their assertions and a willful misreading of their opponents arguments. It was somewhat maddening.

I am fully aware that once an argument starts that no one will ever change their opinion based on that discussion. It is profoundly human failing. It is alright to appear stupid or even bigoted, but wrong is never an option.

Okay now that I have gotten that substantial preamble out of the way, I really just wanted an excuse to post a couple links that caught my eye.

First off that, Argumentum ad Populum (additional analysis here) that I spoke of before:
Taibbi: To me, the main thing about the Tea Party is that they’re just crazy. If somebody is able to bridge the gap with those voters, it seems to me they will have to be a little bit crazy too. That’s part of the Tea Party’s litmus test: “How far will you go?”

Gergen: I flatly reject the idea that Tea Partiers are crazy. They had some eccentric candidates, there’s no question about that. But I think they represent a broad swath of the American electorate that elites dismiss to their peril.

Hart: I agree with David. When two out of five people who voted last night say they consider themselves supporters of the Tea Party, we make a huge mistake to suggest that they are some sort of small fringe group and do not represent anybody else.

Taibbi: I’m not saying that they’re small or a fringe group.

Gergen: You just think they’re all crazy.

Taibbi: I do.

Gergen: So you’re arguing, Matt, that 40 percent of those who voted last night are crazy?

Taibbi: I interview these people. They’re not basing their positions on the facts — they’re completely uninterested in the facts. They’re voting completely on what they see and hear on Fox News and afternoon talk radio, and that’s enough for them.

Gergen: The great unwashed are uneducated, so therefore their views are really beneath serious conversation?

Taibbi: I’m not saying they’re beneath serious conversation. I’m saying that these people vote without acting on the evidence.

Gergen: I find it stunning that the conversation has taken this turn. I disagree with the Tea Party on a number of issues, but it misreads who they are to dismiss them as some kind of uneducated know-nothings who have somehow seized power in the American electorate. It is elitist to its core. We would all be better off if we spent more time listening to each other rather than simply writing them off.

In my opinion this discussion perfectly distills that logical fallacy. Simply because large numbers of people believe something does not always make it true. Sixty years ago in the United States, large swaths of Americans believed that blacks were less deserving of equal treatment then whites. Or if you prefer a non-racially charged analogy, during the dark ages large portions of the afflicted communities believed that carrying flowers protected you from the Black Plague.
To take Taibbi's point the people he interviewed would eschewed any data that disagreed with them. In his estimation that made them crazy.

Now the next two blog posts are Palin related (here and here). Mrs. Palin, has changed the political equation, she has touched a nerve politically and the pundits (and her opponents) have been slow to realize this. As the able guys and gals over at Balloon Juice explain in the most plain language I have seen:

This is a standard beltway political analysis, and it reflects a basic misunderstanding of Palin’s strategy in general, and specifically why Palin doesn’t give a shit about Michelle Obama’s gender or popularity.

Palin’s goal is to mobilize a base of Fox-watching, resentment-driven primary voters. These people are mainly white and male, and they do not like Michelle Obama. Palin’s characterization of Michelle Obama as an elite black woman who thinks she knows better just stirs the pot of resentment that Palin thinks will drive her primary victories. In the eyes of the typical Palin primary voter, Mrs. Obama’s anti-obesity program is in no way “benign”—it’s another example of that uppity Princeton-educated black ballbuster thinking she knows better than real Americans.

Second, if Palin does get the nomination, she’ll be a weak candidate with little or no positive agenda. So, she’ll have to attack Michelle and Barack Obama, Sasha, Malia and Bo, repeatedly and without regard to their poll numbers. She will run a constant Twitter and Facebook attack machine with the goal of making Obama look weak if he doesn’t respond, but also making him look like he’s picking on her and her family if he does. Her strategy for attracting women voters will be to make Obama look like he isn’t tough enough to defend his wife and family, and then to make him look like a jerk for attacking poor defenseless Sarah.

Palin will be able to pursue this strategy in large part because she won’t be subject to the same media rules as her primary or general opponents. The mainstream media dutifully reports her every tweet but is unable to question her directly on the horseshit that she spews. My guess is that she won’t travel with any press but Fox and associated friendly outlets. She’s shown a basic capability of participating in a debate and not making a complete ass of herself, if she’s prepped correctly, so she’ll probably outperform the low expectations that will accompany that little ritual.

My point isn’t that she’s unstoppable, just that the campaign analysis in the mold of Teddy White and Jack Germond isn’t the way to understand the Palin project. She isn’t part of that system, and she doesn’t play by its rules.

And this reflection from Andrew Sullivan:
There is no maturity here; no self-reflection; no capacity even to think how to appeal to the half of Americans who are already so appalled by her trashy behavior and cheap publicity stunts. There is a meanness, a disrespect, a vicious partisanship that, if allowed to gain more power, would split this country more deeply and more rancorously than at any time in recent years. And that's saying something.
Say what you want about our current president, from his statements and actions he just doesn't have the same disdain for his opponents as this woman shows.

Now none of these were fact based arguments other then looking at the on record quotes of individuals and evaluating those statements. What they do illustrate is an unwillingness to entertain doubt. That there are times when you ideology is not sufficient to address all issues, and that even sometimes it may be incorrect.

And as Master Kenobi tells us, "Only a sith deals in absolutes. I will do what I must.". So when I see arguments that lack support other then the force of opinion, I will do my best to attack and probe them. Why? Because I must. It is the only way to better the discourse we have.

-Cheers

Sunday, November 28, 2010

Off the beaten path...

A little break from politics today. I found this blog post about "sex with Aspergers", incredibly compelling.

It was an interesting perspective, that honestly, I had never thought about. I have know several people that fall ,at various points, on the scale but I never once thought about how frustrating/difficult it must all be.

Almost instinctively, for most of us, we have and understand that their is a game that must be played in the pursuit of sex. Not once do we even question it. It simply is the way it is. Whether we are proficient or not, we know the rules.

So what would it be like with out that sort of knowledge? Other than in some sort of anthropological sense, it would be terrorizing. That all being said, I giggled like a little school boy when I read this little passage:

We dated. To get rid of him, I told him I was a lesbian and I only wanted to date him if there could be another woman there, too. That didn’t just make him pursue me with more fervor. It made the whole trading floor pursue me. And I had no idea why.

Notice how there’s one theme here: I have no idea how other people think about sex.

At least in this regard Mrs. Trunk is not alone. I honestly have no idea what other people think about sex. You just kind of hope that your sexual habits do not scare off whoever you are trying to bed.

Interestingly enough I find that oddly comforting.

-Cheers

Saturday, November 20, 2010

Pernicious Lies.....



Okay now can we stop with how tax cuts are the tonic which solves every economic ill.


I am guessing no. The magic economic fairy will come along and create jobs! All we need to do is reduce revenue and spending and all will be right!

-Cheers

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Like a record spinning.....

With all the talk of the deficit commission going around, I had prepared a very lengthy post on the relative merits of the commission. I was going to post lots of charts, graphs, and discussion of the topic focusing mainly on the points raised by Dr. Krugman.

But that post had gotten so overly large as to be unwieldy, so instead, I will just sulk and point to this post from earlier this year:

It really sucks to be right about the predictability of politicians and the punditocracy. But if I recall, some extremely brilliant blogger had this to say several months ago:

It is like people refuse to learn the lessons that history teaches us.

Reminder FDR listened to those who were clamoring for "deficit reduction" and that plunged the US back into depression.

I make this simple statement ignore the budget hawks for now. Do what we must to repair the economy and get job growth positive. I guarantee the public will not say a fucking word about the deficit if that happens.
The American people have an extremely limited vocabulary when it comes to economics. During high economic anxiety deficit reduction is always the first thing people say they want, even though it is the wrong thing to do in the midst of an economic contraction.

But don't listen to me, I don't really know that much about economics or "liquidity traps", but there are a few articles, from actual experts like Dr. Paul Krugman here and here, with a solid piece in the Washington post, here.

This is why we need to do better at teaching history.

This also looks very bad, for the rest of us, because the people in charge are either to blinded by
ideology or too stupid to take the proper corrective.
That's right, I have quoted myself twice! Anyway, this push for austerity is common during economic contractions. When it is absolutely the wrong sort of thing to do. Cutting spending in the midsts of a recession is a sure fire way to prolong that recession.

So again I must ask, why do we have a deficit commission instead of a "growth" or "get people jobs" commission?

There are some arguments and suggestions in the chairman's commission report that do bear some discussion, however, the very existence of the commission is concession to the arguments made by Republicans. The idea that we are talking about this instead of ways to create more jobs or encourage growth is extremely disappointing and demoralizing.

-Cheers

Wednesday, November 10, 2010

What the People want....

There have been a lot people running around talking about how the democrats over played their hand on health care reform. Ezra Klein at the Washington Post posted and interesting chart on various previous of the health care law.

Massive parts are the bill are wildly popular, when the public is informed of them. While the ways of paying for them are not.

This shouldn't be surprising, paying for anything is never popular. But here is the chart:


Now democrats have done a lousy job of informing the public on what is in the bill, but then that isn't surprising either. Republican messaging is easier on this. Health Care is massively complicated so especially susceptible to demagoguery.

-Cheers

Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Why we are screwed.

I know it is all the rage that "both sides are the same". A matter of collective fact, as it were.

But how do square this quote:

What have I told you about diet and exercise? Exercise is irrelevant.... "How do you know all this?" One of the reasons I know what I know is that I know liberals, and I know liberals lie, and if Michelle Obama's gonna be out there ripping into "food desserts" and saying, "This is why people are fat," I know it's not true. "Rush, do you really believe that? It's that simple to you, liberals lie?" Yes, it is, folks. Once you learn that, once you come to grips with that, once you accept that, the rest is easy. Very, very simple. Now, my doctor has never told me to restrict any intake of salt, but if he did, I wouldn't. I'd just spend more time in the steam or the sauna sweating it out.
Show me the prominent progressives, or liberals, or Democratic leaders who would say this about Conservatives or republicans? This is anti-science, anti-knowledge, anti- anything that makes sense. The two sides are not the same. Not even remotely.

To paraphrase Robert Novak (from the excellent Lee Atwater documentary Boogie Man), the difference between Democrats and Republicans is that Democrats truly believe in governing, and Republicans just want power.

He is right, and they illustrate that with every day. Just watch their rhetoric. Holding two contradictory positions simultaneously is common place (we will cut spending and create jobs all while during a economic contraction. An economic impossibility.).

So again, I absolutely agree with Bill Maher from my previous post.

-Cheers

Sunday, November 7, 2010

False Equivalence

I found this monologue from Bill Maher to be compelling, and I have had a hard time expressing this very same sentiment.




-Cheers

Wednesday, November 3, 2010

Change those dressings....

It was a bloody night for the democrats last night. No doubt about it. Lots of coverage on the elections. I would recommend staying away from most of it. A lot of it is conjecture and idle speculations will be crap. I would recommend reading this post by Brendan Nyhan:

I'm bracing for an avalanche of nonsense tomorrow night about why Barack Obama is responsible for the expected Republican landslide. Here's a guide to what you should expect.

It's long been obvious that Obama's political standing would decline as a result of the poor economy and the passage of time. Similarly, substantial Democratic losses in the House were always likely given the large number of seats the party had to defend in a midterm election in which it controls the presidency. The continued weakness of the economy subsequently appears to have enhanced the Republican advantage, helping to produce tomorrow's pro-GOP wave.

Instead of focusing on these structural factors, journalists and other political figures have constructed a staggering number of ad hoc claims about messaging, tactics, etc. to "explain" what has happened to Obama and the Democrats:
Also the in fighting shall begin, and we shall hear how much to the left Obama has gone. It really is simple the economy is crap. Nothing else matters. Perhaps on the margins there is some movement here and there. But you can not message past that.

I continue to be amazed how uninformed the electorate actually is. The lack of understanding of basic economics is saddening. If I have to look at Rep. Cantor (R-VA), and listen to spending cuts and tax cuts....well I suspect the next two years will be good times for me blogging.

Keep your head up and start working to make the country better tomorrow.

The White House seriously needs to do a better job of dealing with its base. Insulting them, ignoring them and treating them like naive children will not endear them to that base. Also if the White House believes that the republicans will work with them, they absolutely are mistaken. As I have said in other medium. This was a positive feedback loop for republicans. They will only continue on their path.

-Cheers

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Obama = Keynesian

I am sure I will make some of my friends who attended the Rally for Sanity slightly angry with this post, but this totally made me laugh.



Pragmatism, centrist, moderate these are ideologies as well. Both sides are not the same, it is one thing to complain about the volume of the discourse, but at least know what the discourse is about.

Also, if there is one thing that is consistent across the political spectrum, it is ignorance. There are stupid people everywhere.

-Cheers

Monday, November 1, 2010

Why I will vote tomorrow...

I remember too.

I had written a very lengthy explicative filled post about voting, but I thought this video gives a good idea of why I will be voting mostly democratic tomorrow.


I will always be supportive of a party that at least tries to solve problems, over one that pretends they never caused any. Or places their own gains for power over the countries needs.

Go vote tomorrow.

Monday, October 25, 2010

Monday, October 18, 2010

You might be an idiot if.....

You carry around a sign that says:


I implore people to go out to vote, because you can damn well be sure this idiot will be. Also I hope this person does not have children.

----------

On a lighter note, though I have been disappointed with the Administration on a number of issues (and it is not because they didn't get everything I wanted or wished for, but maybe because they capitulated on virtually every issue and echo many of the rights talking points, and rarely make the case for progressive causes. Also they hurt my fee-fees when they called me "whinny" for not being ecstatic by their list of achievements), but this does my science loving heart some good.

-Cheers

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

You think you have had a bad at work....

Imagine being this guy:


I am pretty confident I would have been fired on the spot for my response.

Also I would like to reiterate, if you ever have to make the statement "But I'm not a racist.". Sadly, you probably are.

-Cheers

Thursday, October 7, 2010

Classy...

Eric likes to call him "Crazy Larry", but Lawrence O'Donnell, did something rather classy last night on his new show.

He apologized to RNC Chairman Michale Steele.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy



He did not have to. I am no fan of Mr. Steele, in general I think he is a poorly qualified example of failing upward, with a horrible grasp of policy. That being the case, I completely agree with Mr. O'Donnell's need to apologize. Words have weight, and their improper use has lasting implications.

So I applaud both Chairman Michael Steele and Mr. O'Donnell, for their graciousness and their humanity.

It is sadly rare to see in this political environment. When every political conflict is some sort of Manichean struggle. Where the opposition is evil.

It is nice to see too men who disagree, treat each other like human beings.

-Cheers

Simple Question...

Why has no one been prosecuted for the financial meltdown that we experienced a couple of years ago?

I am serious. There were prosecutions during the Great Depression, during the Savings and Loans scandal, but nothing now.

This is an issue were I definitely thing the Administration screwed the pooch. A deficit commission; before a return to full employment commission, or even a "who fucked up our economy" commission.

It shows how afraid the Administration is of right wing frames, and lacks the voice to be a successful advocate for the non-wealthy.

-Cheers

Friday, October 1, 2010

New Edition to the Blog Roll

I haven't really be on top of my updating as normal. I will admit it. I am a bit disillusioned with the whole political process right now.

The opposition is ascendant in my view, and for all the wrong reasons, and my chosen political allies are craven.

But that doesn't stop me from reading a lot about it. So I thought I would add another blog to the roll. This one is by a "conservative" commentator, who I have been reading for sometime.

While I do not agree with every thing he says, the clarity of his prose and the logic he brings to bear are compelling.

Daniel Larison of the American Conservative does good, thoughtful analysis. I wish there were more political commentators like him (left of right).

Drop by and check his blog out there.

-Cheers

Thursday, September 30, 2010

Now this is actually informative....



This is some good stuff. Easy and accessible. Informative on what the tax debate actually is, and who gets what. The sort of thing I could get enthused about and post, tell others about. Now if only the Administration would stop targeting American citizens for assassination and invoking "states secrets" to do so.

But what the hell do I know? I am just a whiny unserious pie-in-the-sky leftist who is angry that the administration did not, by fiat, institute a completely socialist regime.

With a nice bit on morality and economics from Dr. Krugman here.

-Cheers

Monday, September 27, 2010

Let them eat cake....

I have been trying to do a post on this blog entry from Todd Henderson (as saved by Dr. Brad Delong because Dr. Henderson deleted the post after the backlash) for a week on so.

But I thought it warranted being quoted in its entirety.

We are the Super Rich « Truth on the Market: The rhetoric in Washington about taxes is about millionaires and the super rich, but the relevant dividing line between millionaires and the middle class is pegged at family income of $250,000. (I’m not a math professor, but last time I checked $250,000 is less than $1 million.) That makes me super rich and subject to a big tax hike if the president has his way.

I’m the president’s neighbor in Chicago, but we’ve never met. I wish we could, because I would introduce him to my family and our lifestyle, one he believes is capable of financing the vast expansion of government he is planning. A quick look at our family budget, which I will happily share with the White House, will show him that like many Americans, we are just getting by despite seeming to be rich. We aren’t.

I, like the president before me, am a law professor at the University of Chicago Law School, and my wife, like the first lady before her, works at the University of Chicago Hospitals, where she is a doctor who treats children with cancer. Our combined income exceeds the $250,000 threshold for the super rich (but not by that much), and the president plans on raising my taxes. After all, we can afford it, and the world we are now living in has that familiar Marxian tone of those who need take and those who can afford it pay. The problem is, we can’t afford it. Here is why.

The biggest expense for us is financing government. Last year, my wife and I paid nearly $100,000 in federal and state taxes, not even including sales and other taxes. This amount is so high because we can’t afford fancy accountants and lawyers to help us evade taxes and we are penalized by the tax code because we choose to be married and we both work outside the home. (If my wife and I divorced or were never married, the government would write us a check for tens of thousands of dollars. Talk about perverse incentives.)

Our next biggest expense, like most people, is our mortgage. Homes near our work in Chicago aren’t cheap and we do not have friends who were willing to help us finance the deal. We chose to invest in the University community and renovate and old property, but we did so at an inopportune time.

We pay about $15,000 in property taxes, about half of which goes to fund public education in Chicago. Since we care the education of our three children, this means we also have to pay to send them to private school. My wife has school loans of nearly $250,000 and I do too, although becoming a lawyer is significantly cheaper. We try to invest in our retirement by putting some money in the stock market, something that these days sounds like a patriotic act. Our account isn’t worth much, and is worth a lot less than it used to be.

Like most working Americans, insurance, doctors’ bills, utilities, two cars, daycare, groceries, gasoline, cell phones, and cable TV (no movie channels) round out our monthly expenses. We also have someone who cuts our grass, cleans our house, and watches our new baby so we can both work outside the home. At the end of all this, we have less than a few hundred dollars per month of discretionary income. We occasionally eat out but with a baby sitter, these nights take a toll on our budget. Life in America is wonderful, but expensive.

If our taxes rise significantly, as they seem likely to, we can cut back on some things. The (legal) immigrant from Mexico who owns the lawn service we employ will suffer, as will the (legal) immigrant from Poland who cleans our house a few times a month. We can cancel our cell phones and some cable channels, as well as take our daughter from her art class at the community art center, but these are only a few hundred dollars per month in total. But more importantly, what is the theory under which collecting this money in taxes and deciding in Washington how to spend it is superior to our decisions? Ask the entrepreneurs we employ and the new arrivals they employ in turn whether they prefer to work for us or get a government handout.

If these cuts don’t work, we will sell our house – into an already spiraling market of declining asset values – and our cars, assuming someone will buy them. The irony here, of course, is that the government is working to save both of these industries despite the impact that increasing taxes will have.

The problem with the president’s plan is that the super rich don’t pay taxes – they hide in the Cayman Islands or use fancy investment vehicles to shelter their income. We aren’t rich enough to afford this – I use Turbo Tax. But we are rich enough to be hurt by the president’s plan. The next time the president comes home to Chicago, he has a standing invitation to come to my house (two blocks from his) and judge for himself whether the Xxxxxxxxxs are as rich as he thinks.

Yes, we have entered a new gilded age. There have been a number of responses to this across the web, but I believe that Dr. Delong and Dr. Krugman, have the right of it. I will to continue with Mr. Delong:

By any standard, they are really rich.

But they don't feel rich. They have a cash flow problem. When the bills are paid at the end of the month, the money is gone--and they feel that they have to scrimp.

I know how they feel. My household income is of the same order of magnitude than theirs (although somewhat less) and we too had to juggle assets quickly when it developed that an error in Reed College's housing system had caused them not to charge us $5,000 that we owe. We too have chosen to put our income in places (tax-favored retirement savings vehicles, building equity, housing, private college costs) where we think it is better used than $200 restaurant meals, $1000 a night resort hotel rooms, or $75,000 automobiles. But I don't think that I am not rich.

Professor Xxxx Xxxxxxxxx's problem is that he thinks that he ought to be able to pay off student loans, contribute to retirement savings vehicles, build equity, drive new cars, live in a big expensive house, send his children to private school, and still have plenty of cash at the end of the month for the $200 restaurant meals, the $1000 a night resort hotel rooms, and the $75,000 automobiles. And even half a million dollars a year cannot be you all of that.

But if he values the high-end consumption so much, why doesn't he rearrange his budget? Why not stop the retirement savings contributions, why not rent rather than buy, why not send the kids to public school? Then the disposable cash at the end of the month would flow like water. His problem is that some of these decisions would strike him as imprudent. And all of them would strike him as degradations--doctor-law professor couples ought to send their kids to private schools, and live in big houses, and contribute to their 401(k)s, and also still have lots of cash for splurges. That is the way things should be.

But why does he think that that is the way things should be?

And here is the dirty secret: Professor Xxxx Xxxxxxxxx thinks that that is the way things should be because he knows people for whom that is the way it is.

Cast yourself back to 1980. In 1980 a household at the bottom of the 1% rich households in America had an income equivalent in today's dollars $190,000 a year. They know of 1000 people--900 of them poorer than they are in income brackets 90-99% and 100 people richer than they are in the top 1% income bracket. The 900 people poorer than them back in 1980 had incomes from $85,000-$190,000 a year. Those are, if you are sitting at the bottom of the top 1%, the middle class who are not as successful as you. You don't look downward much. Instead, you look upward. Of the 100 above you, 90 in 1980 had incomes less than three times their incomes. And they would have known of 1 person of that 100 who was seven times as rich as they were.

Thus Professor Xxxx Xxxxxxxxx in 1980 would have known who the really rich were, and they would on average have had about four times his income--more, considerably more, but not a huge gulf. He would have known people who were truly rich, and he would have seen himself as one of them--or as almost one of them.

Now fast forward to today. Today a household at the bottom of the 1% rich households in America has an income of nearly $400,000 a year--the income of that slot in the labor market has more than doubled, while the incomes of those at the slot at the bottom of the 10% wealthy has grown by only 20% in two decades. The 900 people he knows in the 90%-99% slots have incomes that start at $110,000 a year. Compared to Xxxx Xxxxxxxxx's $455,000, they are barely middle class--"How can they afford cell phones?" Xxxxxxxxx sometimes wonders.

But he wonders rarely. He doesn't say: "Wow! My real income is more than twice the income of somebody in this slot a generation ago! Wow! A generation ago the income of my slot was only twice that of somebody at the bottom of the 10% wealthy, and now it is 3 1/2 times as much!" For he doesn't look down at the 99% of American households who have less income than he does. And he looks up. And when he looks up today he sees as wide a gap yawning above him as the gap between Dives and Lazarus. Mr. Xxxxxxxxx doesn't look down.

Instead, Mr. Xxxx Xxxxxxxxx looks up. Of the 100 people richer than he is, fully ten have more than four times his income. And he knows of one person with 20 times his income. He knows who the really rich are, and they have ten times his income: They have not $450,000 a year. They have $4.5 million a year. And, to him, they are in a different world.

And so he is sad.
That is what we are contending with. That is the perspective of those making the most noise on the possibly extension of the Bush tax cuts. Let's face it tax are going to have to go up, as well as, spending being brought under control. If you think just one of these will solve our problems you are delusional. And for too long (the last 20-30 years) while the amount of income has shifted increasingly to the top earners, their tax burdens have been decreased. Yet this is what they are complaining about a 2-4% increase on income above 200,000-250,0000.

Near 10% unemployment and this is the complaint we hear. The utter lack of social consciousness is startling. You are in the top 99 percentile....


I do not believe that the "rich" are evil, by any stretch of the imagination, but the lack of any feeling of culpability on the part Wall Street and business officials is jarring. Now Mr. Henderson, is but an economics professor at the University of Chicago, but the mindset is very similar. These are the titans of industry. They believe that a 2-4% increase in taxes are draconian. So you decide what they are.

-Cheers

Monday, September 20, 2010

Better Living Through Science


I saw this article and thought it was mighty nifty. I will be back to political kvetching later this afternoon.
But I thought this was a nice, feel good, distraction for a Monday.

Basically it is a pouch used to transport grain foodstuffs and once it is emptied, it can be used as a solar power water purification device.

Ingenious.


-Cheers

Thursday, September 16, 2010

On bigotry.

Recently there have been a number of polls, articles, news stories about the rise of Islamophobia in the country.

A couple weeks back Howard Dean defended the the American people and the opponents of Park 51, from the accusations of intolerance and bigotry:
I think some of my own folks on my end of the spectrum of the party are demonizing some fairly decent people who are opposed to this. And, again, in no way am I defending, you know, the right wing of the Republican Party. But there are 65 percent of the people in this country are not right-wing bigots. Some of them really have deep emotional feelings about this.
To me this is a hollow sounding rationale. Simply because a majority supports something does not imbue it with virtue.

Why is that?

Well Jim Crow laws were widely accepted through much of the country not long ago. Women were disenfranchised until the turn of the last century, and that was popularly held belief. When surveyed, American troops supported segregation pre-WWII. Bigotry can be just as popular in this country as baseball and apple pie. If history has taught
us nothing else, it has taught us that; and there was nothing virtuous about any of the above . It is and was that the time, just simple bigotry.

Ta-Nehisi Coates does an admirable job of talking eloquently about this. Simply because a lot of people believe a thing it still can be prejudiced or biased or even racist.
The notion that that there are no actual bigots in America is hinted at in Dean's last sentence, that opposition to Park51 comes from "deep emotional feelings," as opposed to a presumably thin and shallow bigotry. In fact, bigotry is often quite substantive and emanates from "deep emotional feelings." The planter in the antebellum South who refused to emancipate his slaves was not committing evil simply because it felt good. He was, in the main, doing it to protect the interest and welfare of his children. In other words, he had "deep emotional feelings" about the fate of his progeny and the nature of their inheritance.
That about sums it up, for me.


-Cheers

Monday, September 13, 2010

Things that are hard to convey

A problem I have had for a long time, is trying to explain something that is counter intuitive to a hostile audience.

This comes up from time to time. It is even hard to explain something counter intuitive to a sympathetic audience if they are not already aware of the phenomena.

A couple of examples of this are things would be this, a variation of the Monty Hall Paradox, and Quantum Mechanics.

Recently a couple of topics have come up that I find to have this characteristic: Conversations on the effects of the Stimulus, and Climate Change.

First on economics. I will be the first to admit that I am no master of economic theory, but I do understand aggregate effects. So I can understand why Dr. Krugman may be pulling out his hair over the general dialog with regards to "counter cyclical" spending (Stimulus), especially how public opinion rarely coincides with the proper action. He returns to the topic many, many, many times.

Whenever the issue of fiscal stimulus comes up, you can count on someone chiming in to say, “Only a moron could believe that the answer to a problem created by too much debt is to create even more debt.” It sounds plausible — but it misses the key point: there’s a fallacy of composition here. When everyone tries to pay off debt at the same time, the result is contraction and deflation, which ends up making the debt problem worse even if nominal debt falls. On the other hand, a strong fiscal stimulus, by expanding the economy and creating moderate inflation, can actually help resolve debt problems.
In particular Dr. Krugman is obliquely referencing what is known as the Paradox of thrift.
The idea that an individual action when multiplied over a large group worsens the status of the group as a whole.

Ezra Klein chimes in here as well, just to show how mainstream some of these economic ideas are.

On the environmental front this piece, is an interesting read. What do you do, when there is a very tangible immediate benefit, but the consequences are safely in the future, so that those who reap the benefits never have to pay the consequences associated with those actions?

So in short, I was just stricken by how pervasive this is. No matter the proof you bring to bare, it runs headlong into the inability of people to understand aggregate effects.

-Cheers

Sunday, September 12, 2010

Round-Up

Posting has been a lot slower of late. Lots of stuff keeping me occupied recently, from Dawn of War II, to bar crawl preparations.

Anyway thought I would toss out a nice Sunday afternoon post on things non-political.

I recently switched from Comcast to At&t U-verse.

I must say I have been impressed with it thus far. First off the receiver is nice and compact, not the clunky contraption that Comcast provided. So it fairly easy to put it near the tee vee with little hassle.

The modem/signal box/wi-fi device that they use to convert the signal from the telephone jack is pretty snazzy as well. It resembles a large cable modem, but has a pretty informative display
to give you feedback on what components are being used.

The actual service is enormously different then what Comcast offers. There are far more bells and whistles in this At&t product. From the layered menus, to the interactive options (updated weather, stocks and scores displayed on screen), to even a built in on screen dual view option.

So all in all I am pretty pleased with my purchase. In general I loathe the bundling cable tee vee does. It is designed to bilk as much from customers as possible. That all being said though, the channel selection seems pretty good. And lets face it, I would be excited about anything that lets me not have to deal with Comcast.

I would highly recommend it, if for no other reason then to give Comcast some serious competition. Maybe then they would lower their prices and improve their customer service.

-Cheers

Wednesday, September 1, 2010

You are going to hear this alot....

....Over the next few months you are going to hear a lot of very important people say, "
No one could have predicted this!".

Now I loathed this when Republicans did it with the Iraq War (as Glenn Greenwald ably documents) and I hate it even more when Democrats do it with regards to the Great Recession.
Asked if the stimulus bill was too small, [White House press secretary Robert] Gibbs says: "I think it makes sense to step back just for a second. ... Nobody had, in January of 2009, a sufficient grasp of ... what we were facing." He adds that any stimulus was "unlikely to fill" the hole the financial meltdown created.

"What the Recovery Act did was prevent us from sliding even into a deeper recession with greater economic contraction, with greater job loss than we have experienced because of it," he says.

But in this case, one of the main critics who called them on this is not afraid to speak up. Not because he is always correct but because this what always happens when errors in judgment are made. First, it is "unprecedented", then "No one could have known", always an attempt to deflect and pass blame. Well "nobody" was "concerned" at the time.

The truth is that some of us were practically screaming back in January 2009 that the administration was proposing too small a program. Start with this post and work forward. And no, the point isn’t that I’m so smart — it is that given the forecasts we had at the time, and given historical experience of recessions after financial crises, it wasn’t at all hard to see that the plan was too small. Things have been worse than expected — but not that much worse.

And why does this matter? Because the best chance Obama et al have to change things now is to make the case that we need to do more, and that Republicans stand in the way. Yet here they are, apparently trying to run on the claim that they had it right all along, or something. Is this just boneheaded political strategy? Is it about the egos of the advisers who called it wrong? I don’t know — but it fills me with despair.

Me too Dr. Krugman.

And the Democratic leadership is surprised at the lack of enthusiasm in their base. Maybe if you didn't lie about even this. You would have shown a small glimmer of the leadership we had hoped for.

-Cheers

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

New Blog Links.

I have been a little remiss in updating my blog links.

So I have a couple to add:

For economics I have come to trust Dr. Krugman. His ability for explaining complex economic principles is invaluable.

Since moving to the Washington Post Greg Sargent has been doing yeoman's work on all manner of politics. It is a good place to get a good rundown on politics.

And it is good to see David Wiegel with a blog again.

So they will be getting added to the blog roll.

-Cheers

Washington Post Chat

Eugene Robinson at the Washington Post had a reader chat the other day, that was pretty good. I wish there were was more commentary like this on cable new. I found this portion particularly
interesting:

Q.

NYC Mosque

You are simply misinformed and misguided and blinded by your liberal bias. It was a minority of Germans and Japanese that brought the horrors of WWII to the world. It similarly is a minority of Muslims that have brought 9/11 and soon nuclear horrors to the world. Like the Germans and Japanese ALL Muslims must bear the responsibility and wear this stain on themselves for generations until they have cleansed themselves thru good acts as have the Germans and Japanese. Additionally Obama said this Mosque will prevent another 9/11. Why haven't the exiting 100 Mosques prevented 9/11? This Mosque is a symbol of Muslim domination over America and IT WILL NEVER STAND.
A.
Eugene Robinson writes:

Sigh. first, since the Germans invoked God in committing their atrocities, by your logic we should blame all Christians, no? Second, establishing an open-door community center devoted to interfaith understanding would seem to me to be a "good act." There is no question of "Muslim domination over America." Give me a break. Do you have so little faith in our Constitution and our nation?

– August 24, 2010 11:08 AM

This is just a microcosm, of what the essential arguments being made by the mosques opponents are. All Muslims are to blame for 9/11. That is simple bigotry and religious intolerance.

Should all Christians be tarred with the actions of the IRA, or the actions for murderous anti-abortion activists? I believe the answer to that question is "no". But it seems for far too many of my fellow citizens the resounding answer is "yes".

-Cheers

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Real Profiles in Political Courage....

Seriously, kudos to Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) and Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-OR) for showing clear and real courage for standing up for fundamental rights.

Merkley made the essential point here:

The debate swirling around the proposed mosque and Muslim community center in lower Manhattan near the World Trade Center site has, for many, tapped into strong emotions of a national trauma that is still raw. But in the churning political and constitutional arguments, one question has not been adequately addressed: what makes a mosque near ground zero offensive....

[M]any mosque opponents argue, just because it can be built does not mean it should be. They say it would be disrespectful to the memories of those who died on 9/11 to build a Muslim facility near the World Trade Center site. I appreciate the depth of emotions at play, but respectfully suggest that the presence of a mosque is only inappropriate near ground zero if we unfairly associate Muslim Americans with the atrocities of the foreign al-Qaida terrorists who attacked our nation....

And Mr. Paul makes the salient point about rights here:

It is repeatedly said that 64% of the people, after listening to the political demagogues, don't want the mosque to be built. What would we do if 75% of the people insist that no more Catholic churches be built in New York City? The point being is that majorities can become oppressors of minority rights as well as individual dictators. Statistics of support is irrelevant when it comes to the purpose of government in a free society--protecting liberty.
I am not a fan of Rep. Paul, but his argument is a fundamentally libertarian one. So I applaud him on standing up for first principles.

-Cheers

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

You know you have gone too far....

...When Pat Buchanan calls you out for going to far in demagogueing a minority group:



Seriously...Pat
fucking Buchanan is calling you out on intolerance....

I did not see that coming.

-Cheers

Friday, August 13, 2010

Word of the Day

It has been a while, but I thought I would fish out a word for people to use.

Today's word is :

Pomander

po·man·der

[poh-man-der, poh-man-der] Show IPA
–noun
1.
a mixture of aromatic substances, often in the form of a ball, formerly carried on the person as a supposed guard against infection but now placed in closets, dressers, etc.
2.
the ball, box, or other case in which it was formerly carried.

I don't think we need a sentence for this one. I just sounded delicious.....


-Cheers